Could Trump ‘Pull a Zelensky’ on Netanyahu? (Yossi Alpher - March 10, 2025)
Yossi Alpher is an independent security analyst. He is the former director of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University, a former senior official with the Mossad, and a former IDF intelligence officer. Views and positions expressed here are those of the writer, and do not necessarily represent NJN's views and policy positions.
Q. Two weeks ago at the UN General Assembly, Israel voted with Russia and North Korea and against most of the world on the Ukraine issue. Does this sort of morally repugnant maneuver protect Israel from President Trump’s capricious international behavior, as demonstrated recently with Zelensky in the Oval Office?
A. That February 24 UN vote was something of a milestone for Israel, which had previously tried to demonstrate neutrality towards the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indeed, a few years ago PM Naftali Bennett briefly tried to mediate between Moscow and Kiev.
So did PM Netanyahu buy Israel an insurance policy against unfriendly Trump initiatives with that UN vote? Hardly. In the ensuing two weeks, it has emerged that Trump has initiated a direct US-Hamas negotiating track and is moving toward direct negotiations with Iran on the nuclear issue. Both are initiatives that Netanyahu opposes.
(Even though moving in those directions would long ago have made sense for Netanyahu, too. See below.)
Q. But at both the moral and the global level, what is the significance of Israel siding so openly with Washington and Moscow regarding Ukraine? Surely it could have abstained at that UN General Assembly vote.
A. In view of the Israeli public’s preoccupation with rescuing the hostages and with the Netanyahu government’s renewed efforts at ‘judicial reform,’ that UN vote more or less passed under the radar in Israel. But it is significant. It appears to reflect a number of highly problematic short-term considerations on the part of the Netanyahu government.
For one, despite or perhaps in view of Trump’s near-daily change of tactics on a variety of issues, Netanyahu seemingly reckons he needs not only Trump in the Middle East, but Putin too. For example, in neighboring Syria, where Russian influence and presence (however residual in the aftermath of the fall of Bashar Assad) is preferable in Israeli eyes over Islamist Turkey, which is trying to turn Syria into a vassal state. Regarding Iran (where Moscow presumably opposes a military nuclear program as much as does Washington) Russia has reportedly agreed to mediate the issue between Washington and Tehran.
Recently, Netanyahu sent his military secretary, Major General Roman Goffman, to Moscow for consultations. He sends no-one to Kiev.
Syria and Iran are areas of concern where Ukraine has neither influence nor interest. Add to this Jerusalem’s lingering Holocaust-era suspicions of Ukrainian anti-Semitism and corresponding WWII-era gratitude toward Russia. Then factor in Netanyahu’s reflex impulse to do Trump’s bidding regarding Russia and Ukraine. All these considerations ostensibly trump whatever moral qualms Netanyahu may have regarding Zelensky’s fate.
Q. Indeed, Israel appears to have been ‘freed’ by Trump’s administration to take unprincipled and immoral stands regarding issues far closer to home. . .
A. Precisely. In recent weeks Netanyahu has allowed himself to violate Israel’s US- and Qatari-brokered commitment to Hamas to open negotiations regarding phase II of the hostage/ceasefire agreement and has blocked humanitarian aid to Gaza. And the IDF is taking an unusually free hand on several other fronts. It remains on Syrian territory on the Golan and has even threatened to intervene in Syria on behalf of beleaguered Syrian Druze. It remains inside Lebanon despite the ceasefire agreement there. It is destroying entire neighborhoods in rebellious West Bank refugee camps in Jenin and Tulkarm.
Q. All this freedom of maneuver, in return for toeing the line on Ukraine. But surely there is going to be a price to pay…
A. Trump has kicked Zelensky out of the White House, cut off all weapons supplies to Ukraine, taken Russia’s side in the two countries’ war, ordered a cessation of US cyber operations targeting Russia and paused intelligence-sharing with Ukraine. What else, then, is he capable of doing regarding so-called allies like Ukraine and so-called enemies like Russia? Here is veteran commentator Nachum Barnea in Yediot Aharonot just a week ago regarding ramifications for Israel and Netanyahu’s blind support for Trump:
“In the short term this may pay off: As long as Trump backs Israel, it enjoys immunity. But, as Zelensky learned in person, Trump’s support is fickle. When Netanyahu watched the broadcast [of Zelensky, Trump and Vance] from the Oval Office, I reckon his stomach churned. Just a few weeks earlier, he had sat on the same chair. In the absence of shared values, betrayal is always waiting around the corner.”
Q. What sort of betrayal?
A. The Israeli intelligence community is already wondering whether Israeli intelligence shared with the US now flows to Russia (Europeans and Australians are also wondering). If Trump is talking to Iran and Hamas, what is he telling them about Israel? Could his next step be a Ukraine-style reduction of arms and intelligence supply to Israel to leverage pressure, based on his bilateral understandings with the Russians, the Iranians, or even Hamas?
Q. Granted that Trump’s abandonment of Ukraine reflects a lack of moral foundation in his approach to international relations and that Netanyahu is buying into this. But where does it end?
A. In opting for Russia over NATO and Europe with regard to Ukraine, Trump is making a major strategic choice in American policy. Presumably, because he leads the world’s preeminent superpower, he can get away with this and zigzag back and forth at will. But Netanyahu? The Israeli leader’s choice of Russia over Europe with regard to Ukraine and his abandonment of minimal moral principals could have serious long-term consequences for Israel. Not only is Europe Israel’s biggest trading partner, not too long ago UK and French aircraft defended Israel against Iranian missiles and drones . . .
What’s more, if in Trump’s case the abrupt changes in international orientation can tentatively be explained as a reflection of his sentiment-free transaction-based approach to perceived US interests, this is not the case with Netanyahu. For Bibi, the principal motive is his own and his coalition’s political survival. The hostages, the Hamas ceasefire, the Iranian threat, Israel’s attitude toward a hostile Russia-- all are subordinate to Israeli politics and Netanyahu’s personal fate.
Q. And to Trump’s totally unpredictable policy zigzags and lack of moral and strategic foundation.
A. Amen.
Q. One more issue that you just raised: you suggest that Netanyahu should consider offering direct Israeli contact with Hamas and Iran. But both call for Israel’s destruction and refuse to talk to it.
A. If nothing else, a repeated Israeli call for direct negotiations would highlight to the world exactly who the hardliner is here. Besides, people like me have had unofficial contacts with Iranians and Palestinian Islamists for decades. Asking intermediaries like Russia and Turkey to facilitate negotiations with Islamists is good for Israel’s image in everyone’s eyes-- except Israel’s own Jewish extremists.